Press Release
THE IMPACT OF PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH ON JOB CREATION, HOUSING AND LAND DEVELOPMENT IN STANISLAUS COUNTY
September 10, 2007
By the Alliance Economic Development Group
It is important to realize that while population projections for the future impact growth strategies and planning activities, we face very real issues today related to job creation, jobs to housing balances and land use decisions. The crisis today is the inability for business to expand adequately or locate new operations in this county. We frequently turn away good employers-Fortune 500 companies-because we don’t have sites to meet their needs. We are unable to provide employment opportunities to our citizens seeking new or better jobs.
Our limited sites are too small, often without adequate infrastructure and poorly located for transportation and/or logistical purposes. If one looks at the total acreage of “shovel ready” land available throughout the county today, a false impression can be formed. The inventory of a few hundred acres is spread throughout the county; often in areas business is not interested in considering. This inventory does not provide for large parcels of land (50 acres or more). The Alliance is unable to perform its job of economic development and workforce development to its fullest ability because of the lack of product (sites).
The following narrative outlines the dark future for job creation in the county over the next three decades if decisive and immediate action is not taken. It is a call to action for the community to embrace the challenges that growth presents and deal with them effectively, immediately and in a proactive and progressive manner. The urgency requires our leaders to make difficult decisions now and our people to recognize this leadership imperative is our only hedge against mega-problems in the future.
POPULATION TRENDS:
The Department of Finance for the State of California regularly predicts population growth trends for the State and for each county. The current population estimate for Stanislaus County for January 2007 is 521,497. The newly released projection from the Department of Finance indicates an increase in population for each of the years identified that will exceed 1,000,000 people by 2040. The chart below details two predictions: the population projections issued following the 2000 Census and the more recent projection issued in July 2007.
The next chart provides historical perspective on the revised population forecast.
HOUSING:
Baseline survey estimates of current housing stock as of January 1, 2007 indicates there were a total of 175,040 housing units in Stanislaus County. These estimates reflect 3.049 persons per occupied housing unit.The State of California requires the Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) to identify housing needs for each region as a response to the growing population and household growth in the state. For the planning period from 2001 to 2008 HCD mandated 35,239 housing units. Recognizing the continued growth of the county and the state, state law requires new mandated housing units be assigned. Failure of a region to provide for these mandated units may well prevent HCD from certifying housing elements from jurisdictions in the county. Barring a change in state law, similar mandates to those given from 2001 to 2008 will be issued by the state to accommodate the projected growth over the next three decades. State estimates show that housing units of all types increased from 159,724 at January 1, 2003 to 175,040 at the start of 2007.
Based on the revised Department of Finance population estimates and assuming the ratio of 3.049 persons per household, there will need to be an increase in housing of over 112,000 homes to meet the population trends over the next 23 years. Assuming a density rate of 5 homes per acre, housing could consume 22,426 acres over that same period. The chart below details the housing needs as identified in correlation to the population projections.
EMPLOYMENT AND JOB CREATION:
Based on California Employment Development Department figures, the 2007 labor force for Stanislaus County averages 229,100 people within a county population of 521,497. Approximately 44% of the total population is currently in the labor force. This figure represents the total number of residents that are either employed or actively seeking employment. Comparing the population trends as identified above and retaining 44% as the labor force participation rate, potential demand for new quality, family wage jobs is depicted in the chart below.
As the population in the county increased from 265,900 in 1980 to 446,997 in 2000, the flow of workers to jobs outside of the county increased dramatically. In 1980, 1% (1,037) of the workforce traveled to the Bay area for employment. In 2000, 8% (13,657) went over the Altamont Pass for work. In 2000, a total of 35,619 left the county for employment in other counties. Barring significant strides to increase employment opportunities inside the county, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission in Oakland projects a total of 28,367 Stanislaus County residents will travel to the Bay area for daily employment in the year 2030.
DEVELOPABLE LAND NEEDS:
Based on the existing inventory of shovel ready industrial and commercial land and with the assumption that all currently identified industrial or commercial projects are completed as projected there would be a primary inventory of approximately 10,000 acres available by 2030 (less that which is built on in the interim.) This inventory includes completed land development as well as proposed projects in the Beard Industrial District, Keystone Business Park, West Patterson Business Park, the Turlock WISP, Oakdale, Salida and Crows Landing.
With the projected number of jobs needed to meet the increased population and using existing job density averages, this inventory of 10,000+ acres (assuming all projects are fully developed) would fail to meet the county’s employment needs in 2030. Rapid advancements in technologies and efficiencies typically decrease job density figures further compounding the issue. The following graph depicts the number of acres required to meet the projected employment demands based on the preceding assumptions.
TRANSPORTATION:
In 2005, the 510,000 residents of Stanislaus County held title to approximately 465,000 vehicles. Assuming the same ratio of ownership, by the year 2020, with minimal additional lane miles added, over 630,000 vehicles will be registered in Stanislaus County and consume in excess of 270 million gallons of fuel per year.
CONCLUSION:
The recently revised projections for Stanislaus County over the next several decades indicate a dramatic increase in population to over 1,000,000 by 2040. To provide both job opportunities and the projected number of housing units for this population increase designated land areas will need to be identified and set aside to meet these needs. Communities may need to consider obligating new housing developments to set aside acreage for job creation as a part of the approval process. The current inventory of “shovel ready” land will only fulfill job development requirements through 2020.During the projected timeframe there will be a need to develop in excess of 22,000 acres for 112,000+ homes. Further, the increased population will create job demands that will double by 2040 requiring an additional 5,000 acres beyond the 10,000 acres that has currently been identified as possible for industrial and commercial development.
Several industrial and business park projects have been identified and are in various stages of planning, development or review. These projects must proceed as emergencies if we are to in any way capitalize on the rapidly diminishing competitive advantages Stanislaus County currently enjoys. Unnecessary delays in completing these projects will only exacerbate the employment challenges of the next thirty years, curtail critical business expansion, and have a negative impact on our general economy.
The majority of the population increases occur after 2020. Considering the time constraints and development demands placed on each newly created area-industrial/commercial or housing- there must be a concerted effort now to identify additional developable lands for the future and begin the planning process.
The information contained in this paper is based on statistical data received from the State of California Departments of Finance, Employment Development, and Housing and Community Development, currently identified industrially/commercially zoned areas in Stanislaus County and projects now in the planning stages throughout the county.